User blog comment:Deathblade 100/July is a terrible time to die: 20th of July Conspirators vs 26th of July Movement/@comment-4661256-20170708032226

I'm going to issue a fairness challenge for the following reasons:

1) This battle is incredibly one-sided in terms of the warriors presented. Although one can (and most likely many will) make the argument that the German officers of WWII were better trained than the Cuban revolutionaries, this ignores the fact that the vast majority of the 20th of July conspirators were considerably older men--generals and colonels typically don't get ranked so highly until years of political and military experience, and here we see no exception. If you Wikipedia "List of members of the 20 July plot" you'll see the vast majority range from their late thirties upwards into their fifties and sixties; even Claus von Stauffenberg was 36 at the time of the plot, which is considerably older than the typical frontline infantryman's age of 18-20. The 20 July plot was one spearheaded by members of the Prussian military elite, who were actually much more resentful at Hitler's upending the old military order than they were upset for any moral reasons.

On the other hand, while I can't find any statistics indicating the average age of a Cuban revolutionary soldier under Castro, I think it's safe to assume that, as a guerrilla force designed to engage government forces in irregular warfare, it would have been largely comprised of able-bodied young men who were disillusioned at their socioeconomic standing. You're basically comparing fit young men against middle-aged and old men, and even though guns do help even things out a bit, a fight is still a highly physical endeavor, firearms or no firearms. This already puts the 20 July conspirators at an enormous disadvantage.

2) On a similar note, this also means that the Cuban revolutionaries will have much better combat experience and more practical (if not objectively "better" training). As members of the high command and officer corps, most of the 20 July conspirators would not have seen a lot of personal combat in WWII. World War I? Sure, probably. But the Cuban guerrillas would have had a much higher chance of seeing combat personally simply because of the nature of the revolution. The 20 July plot was one built around subterfuge, secrecy, and espionage. That means avoiding confrontation wherever possible. Although a guerrilla movement initially depends on similar means, ultimately it will boil out into open conflict. The guerrillas therefore have, in my opinion, a huge advantage when it comes to relevant combat experience and training.

3) Historical success: The 20th of July conspirators failed miserably in their attempts to kill Hitler. They didn't kill him and they didn't overthrow him, and the overwhelming majority were arrested and killed. Castro and his revolutionaries succeeded against an enemy that enjoyed US support and had a greater financial base of support. I don't need to point out how this gives the Cubans yet another advantage.

In conclusion, I can see no feasible way that the 20 July conspirators stand a chance. This is a flagrant mismatch, and even though the connection is interesting as they're both "20s in July" movements, that doesn't mean they're a good match in a battle to the death. The Germans are way, way older and therefore physically less fit, they have much less relevant combat experience and training, and they were historically less successful, indicating an incompetence in the field of battle that will make it more difficult still for them to win.