User blog comment:SPARTAN 119/Rena Ryuguu (Higurashi No Naku Koro Ni) vs Fuminori Sakisaka (Saya No Uta)/@comment-108.66.56.211-20130413191822/@comment-108.66.56.211-20130413191848

So all in all, it depends on whether Rena get's lucky which in this scenario she did not.