User blog comment:Leolab/User Siege Tourney, Round 39 of 50: Leolab (Lloyd) v Redkite (Markus)/@comment-4661256-20140121235935/@comment-422690-20140127201532

You completely forgot about Markus's trebuchets. those'll put a dent in Lloyd's forces before he can get in; not a huge dent, but a dent nonetheless. Taken in combination with the points outlined below, it'll make a pretty big difference.

You're also seriously underestimating the ability of pikemen in tight spaces; the four most effective ways for a footsoldier to take out a pikeman is by shooting him with an arrow, stabbing him with a polearm, flanking, or hacking the pike's head off with a large weapon. Due to the spacing in the fort, flanking will be a tricky option at best. The shields prevent Lloyd's forces from shooting or stabbing, leaving the only viable method of attack to destroy the pikes themselves. That requires a good amount of room, and when Lloyd gets in it's going to get fairly chaotic and cramped very quickly, hampering any destruction of the pikes. I'd actually liken this situation to Thermopylae; Markus's men have protection, something to keep the more versatile opponents at bay, and the advantage of position.