User blog comment:Leolab/User Siege Tourney, Round 37 of 54: Cfp3157 (Shengway) v Redkite (Markus)/@comment-5522042-20140106163517

Attacker
Overrun castle: Not going to happen. The only good thing Shengway has to help him with breaching the castle is his siege towers, however even then he has low loyalty and once his elephants start killing his own troops, the survivors will likely abandon him.

Force defender to surrender: Not happening, look at Shengway's loyalty score and elephants.

Win Single Combat:  Wont happen. Markus has no reason to accept single combat, and even then carries more effective weaponry.

Defender
Force attacker to surrender: Possible. Shengway's low loyalty will lead one of his more competent generals to overthrow him and surrender.

Annihilate attacker: Likely. Whatever troops don't abandon Shengway will get massacred by Markus' bowmen.

Survive for 4 months: Unlikely, that would require Shengway to survive those 4 months as well.

Win Single Combat: Possible. Markus probably wouldn't duel Shengway, but if he did, he wouldn't have too much trouble...assuming Shengway is sober.

Tie: Wont happen. Markus and his army are simply too well equipped/led.

Winner: Markus