User blog comment:Tybaltcapulet/26th of July Movement vs. Khmer Rouge/@comment-4661256-20180806055848

El Alamein's Dissenting Opinion:

 Melee: Jungle Machete vs. Cane Knife:  As I understand it, while both blades here are primarily designed as agricultural implements, the machete functions far better as a weapon. The machete is far more ergonomic, which allows for better control of the weapon and for more precise strikes. This won't have too big of an impact on the battle anyway, but the machete is by far the superior tool.

Edge: 26th of July Movement

 Close Range: Colt M1911 vs. TT-33:  The Tokarev's extra bullet in the magazine is enough to give it a small edge. Its round isn't actually all that bad, and the nose of its bullet means that while it might not hit an unarmored target as hard as the .45 ACP, it will go through weak cover a lot more easily (such as leaves and other natural obstacles that would be seen in a jungle).

Edge: Khmer Rouge

 Mid Range: Thompson vs. PPS-43:  The Thompson is a really heavy weapon for a submachine gun, and consequently not a weapon that I'm particularly fond of. In this battle, it's even got a smaller magazine than the PPS-43, a nominally shorter effective range (although in a jungle, and in the hands of the Khmer Rouge, I don't see the PPS-43 being effective at the stated 200 m), and a weaker muzzle velocity. It's nice to have the .45 ACP round in a fully automatic weapon, but it's just not as user-friendly as the PPS-43.

Edge: Khmer Rouge

 Long Range: AR-10 vs. M16A1:  The M16A1's got an extra 10 rounds in the magazine, which is pretty important considering the AR-10's 20 rounds will not last as long in a protracted firefight. There really isn't too much else to say here. The weapons are functionally very similar, but the M16 is a militarily-upgraded variant of the AR-10, so it follows that it's a superior tool.

Edge: Khmer Rouge

 Special Weapons: RPD vs. RPD:  They are the same weapon, yes, but the 26th of July Movement get an important edge. As I will discuss in detail below, they are a far more capable group of fighters, so they will absolutely utilize the RPD more effectively than the Khmer Rouge.

Edge: 26th of July Movement

 Explosive Weapons: Molotov Cocktail vs. RGD-33:  The Molotov Cocktail has far less explosive capabilities than the grenade, which boasts a superior blast radius and fragmentation radius. It's an improvised weapon vs. an actual hand-held explosive tool, so this is an obvious edge for the Khmer Rouge.

Edge: Khmer Rouge

WINNER: 26th of July Movement

So, even though the Khmer Rouge got the vast majority of edges, including rifles, SMGs, and grenades, why does the 26th of July Movement win? Simply because they are the more combat-competent warriors. First of all, the Khmer Rouge was not organized effectively for combat. A lot of the political infrastructure went into the overseeing of prison camps and agrarian collectives that ended up starving the countryside and torturing and killing millions of Cambodians. While the Khmer Rouge was evidently capable of taking power in Cambodia, it's important to recognize that this was in the context of a nation totally devastated by US bombings spilling over from neighboring Vietnam, as well as the influence of Viet Cong operatives trying to gain allies next door. The Khmer Rouge ended up losing power very, very quickly, in a matter of weeks, once the Vietnamese invaded in 1979, so it's clear that they are really not able to hold their own in an actual battle against a determined opponent. Plus, a lot of the Khmer Rouge operatives were young teenagers or children, and they would have had serious mental health issues as the result of their participation in genocide and brutal wartime violence.

The 26th of July Movement, alternately, waged an irregular war, but one that was by all means significantly less brutal than the Khmer Rouge's war in Cambodia. They did not commit a genocide in Cuba, and in fact some historians even argue that the Castro regime was less repressive than Batista's regime. This is highly controversial to be sure, but what we can conclusively say is that Castro's guerrilla movement was able to defeat a national government funded by the United States, as well as repel a subsequent US-sponsored invasion at the Bay of Pigs. This is a pretty stark contrast to the Khmer Rouge's absolute failure to do anything in its own defense against the Vietnamese in 1979. Couple that with the fact that the 26th of July Movement members will have significantly fewer mental health issues, better combat experience and better organization (as is noted in the X-Factor section), and they will be able to overcome their slight weapons disadvantage. Anyway, it's not like the Thompson and AR-10 are bad weapons--they are just functionally outclassed by the weapons the Khmer Rouge are carrying. I highly doubt the Khmer Rouge will be able to utilize these differences to their advantage though.

At the end of the day, armed guerrilla movement > genocidal political system. The Khmer Rouge was not equipped to take on opponents who were capable of offering determined resistance. That's basically what we're looking at in this fight.