User blog comment:Leolab/User Siege Tourney, Round 5 of 91: Utter Noob (Celina) v Redkite (Markus)/@comment-5465602-20130326210226

BeastMan14's "Trying brand new things" edges

Attacker Victory Conditions:

1. Overrunning the castle. Chance of success: 1%. Celina has no siege weapons, meaning unless she has an army of Spidermen, she'll have to wait him out, because she ain't getting through the walls. Condition failed.

2. Force Surrender: Chance of success: 5%. Her forces are deserting and disorganized, she isn't making progress,and she's taking heavy casualties. Markus would have to be really unlucky or really stupid to be put in a surrender position. Condition failed.

3. Win Single Combat: Chance of success: 0%. To succeed would require wanting to fight.

Defender Victory Conditions:

1. Force Surrender. Chance of Success: 90% Celina's army is getting decimated with heavy desertions and nothing to show for it. Her own men MIT just make her surrender against her will. Condition achieved.

2. Annihilate. Chance of Success: 95% Markus is in a superior position, alongside having better weapons. Celina's troops won't last long. Condition achieved.

3. Survive. Chance of success: 90% He'll bE dealing heavy casualties while taking little of his own. Condition achieved.

4. Chance of success: 0% Won't be fighting in single combat due to his opponents refusal to.

Tally:

Defender: 0

Attacker: 3

Winner: Markus. He's got better weapons, has a better setup, and should win with little casualties.