User blog comment:Leolab/User Siege Tourney, Round 20 of 75: Cfp3157 (Shengway) v Swg66 (Cadwalader)/@comment-24180428-20130710190040

Attacker

Overrun Castle-Not happening. Cfp's main strategy is to surround, not assault.

Force surrender-Unlikely. Swg has a high loyalty score and Cfp's will likely drop whenever his elephants go crazy from cannon fire.

Single Combat-Possible. Swg's arrows and his poleaxe are better than Cfp's however Cfp's steel hoplon can defend from all of those. Cfp also has more durable armor.

Defender

Annihilate attacker-Possible. The canons and archers are going to do tons of damage and once the elephants go beserk morale (and troop numbers) will go down for Cfp.

Survive for 4 months-Possible. Cfp can't get into the castle and has low morale, meaning desertions.

Win single combat-Slight chance due to his better bow.

Force a surrender-Possible. If Cfp himself doesn't want to surrender one of his officers could kill him then surrender.

Tie

One side meets the victory conditions but loses their general-Unlikely. I doubt Cfp's army can touch Swg and I doubt Cfp's army would continue to fight when/if he dies.

Both lose their general-Unlikely. See above.

Overall winner-Swg. He has a greater chance of victory, as all Cfp can do is hope for 1 on 1, and if Swg refuses Cfp's forces will be decimated.