User blog comment:Leolab/User Siege Tourney, Round 8 of 91: Utter Noob (Celina) v Cfp3157 (Tian/Christian)/@comment-4693949-20130416023631

Attack Conditions:

Overrun Castle: Unlikely, Celina's soldiers will be mowed down and will have trouble getting through Tian's defences.

Force surrender: Not likely, see above.

Win single combat: Imbossible, Celina won't fight in single combat.

Defender Condtions:

Force Surrender: Possible rebellion is a very big threat to Celina and I doubt her forces will last long against a sturdy defense.

Annihilate Attacker: Possible, Celina's men are going to drop like flys or run for the hills and the surprise and shock of the defenders sallying forth from the walls to attack them may break them.

Survive for 4 months: Likely, Celina is going to loose soldiers and she is going to loose them fast and I doubt she will be able to capture the castle fast enough.

Tie conditions:

Victory but looses general: Very Unlikely Celina won't fight and the chances of Tian dying are very low.

Double General loss: Very unlikely, see above.

Overall: I feel that Tian has this, sure his troop loyalty isn't that better than Celina but he is smarter and is much more sane which I feel will swing this to his atvantedge.