User blog comment:Leolab/User Siege Tourney, Round 25 of 63: Cfp3157 (Shengway) v MilitaryBrat (Evans)/@comment-143604-20130822225643

Drayco's Edgy Edges of Edgy Edgines-AMERICA!

Attacker:


 * Overrun- Not Likely. Putting cannons on elephants seems like a poorly thought out idea- I would think that the sound of cannon fire would panic the elephants quicker than even traditional combat sounds do, and it would drive them mad- this could potentially do some damage to Evans' walls, but I find it more likely that the rampaging elephants would only be a hinderance to Shengway's own forces. It's my understanding none of Shengway's men are assigned to actually move the Siege Towers, yes? In that case, they're mostly useless. Evans' defenses are likewise unmanned, but I don't think that will factor into the defending of walls against siege weaponry that won't deal damage of note to begin with.


 * Force Surrender- Possible, but unlikely. In actual combat, Shengway's forces have a significant edge against Evans'. Sure, they aren't as loyal, but they'd be winning any battle scenarios easily- its only when confronted with ways to breach the walls where it becomes likely that his men will simply stop giving a shit. Meanwhile Evans' forces and their crippling weaknesses will negate their strong loyalty, forcing them to cower inside the walls or get slaughtered. That's a plummeting morale, no matter the scenario- but as for which of the two is most likely to plummet to rock bottom first? I'd say it's more likely Shengway's men will give it up than Evans' men dispair to the point of surrender. If Shengway can get in, he's golden- but as we've determined, that's not likely.


 * Single Combat- Likely. Shengway has a superior game up close, where he will be able to dominate with actually effective weapons, as opposed to wielding two heavy-ass two-handed melee weapons at the same time and expect it to be effective. Evans may have a bit of an advantage at longer ranges, but Shengway's not exactly lacking there, and simply brings a better overall set of tools for the job.

Defender:


 * Force Surrender- Not Likely. While I can see Shengway's men abandoning him and leaving, I don't necessarilly see them straight up surrendering to the enemy- especially one that's turtling to survive and is poorly equipped and skilled in battle. They don't have the tools to really force Shengway to actually throw up his hands and give it in.


 * Annihilate Attacker- Not Likely. As we have established, Evans forces are significantly worse equipped than Shengway's, and they simply can't deal the damage to win in battle- any open confilct will result in massive losses for Evans. While Shengway's men throw themselves at the wall, the lack of people manning the defenses means that none of them can actually be used, meaning they effectively have no tools for pushing the attacker back.


 * Survive- Possible, but Unlikely. I don't see Evans men lasting a whole four months within the wall, with the threat of a stronger force looming outside and cutting off their supply lines. While very much possible, the more likely outcome I see is that Evans' forces are driven to dispair before that time period is up, and either get themselves slaughtered, mutiny/coup or surrender.


 * WIn Single Combat- Not Likely. As discussed above, Evans can't defeat Shengway in single combat.

Tie:


 * Both Die: Possible but unlikely. If Evans men were to mutiny, its likely he would fall, but it's also likely that they would surrender afterwards, giving up the potential tie. I don't see many scenarios where Shengway dies.


 * One dies, completes victory conditions: Unlikely. The only ones I can conceivably see winning the day are single combat victories- which are impossible if one general is dead, or the defenders surviving, which they are unlikely to do anyway, much less with no leadership.


 * Deadliest Warrior- Shengway. The only way this battle ends in anything resembling a victory is when Shengway fights Evans one-on-one and wins, which is a pretty lame way to win a siege battle, but it's the most likely scenario regardless.